Face lifts and new wardrobes: Predictions for the luxury industry in the age of Ozempic

Sign up to receive the Vogue Business newsletter for the latest luxury news and insights on Ozempic, plus exclusive membership discounts. To become a Vogue Business Member and receive the Beauty Edit newsletter, click here. This article is based on data predictions from reputable organisations about a global increase in Ozempic use and its effects on the industry. It should not serve as an endorsement for the use of Ozempic for weight loss. The Ozempic effect is in full swing, as the diabetes medication has skyrocketed in popularity over the past two years as the not-so-secret weight loss weapon of the rich and famous. Now, the drug’s knock-on effect for fashion and beauty is becoming clearer. According to calculations from Goldman Sachs, GLP-1 agonist drugs (the medication group targeting weight loss and diabetes) could be used by up to 70 million consumers worldwide by 2028, as Ozempic and similar drugs become cheaper and more easily accessible. In the US alone, Bank of America expects 48 million Americans (about a seventh of the population) will be on GLP-1s by 2030; Ozempic manufacturer Novo Nordisk reported that sales of the drug grew 58 per cent in 2023. Finance firm Jefferies estimated the growth in usage could save airlines millions in fuel costs per year. Ozempic currently comes at a steep price — roughly $1,000 in the US and £300 in the UK per month — but that’s expected to change, analysts say, as patents on GLP-1 active ingredients run out in various countries. Before it hits the mainstream, brands and retailers should prepare for the effects. “We are seeing interest and awareness of Ozempic grow and grow,” says Nicki Zink, deputy head of industry analysis at intelligence firm Morning Consult, which has conducted several surveys across Ozempic and other weight loss drug users in the US. “These drugs are still quite novel, so it’s especially important for brands of all types across industries to take note. This is a really important time for retailers to pay attention and get ahead of the trend to make sure that they’re prepared for the potential of changing consumers; to make sure that they have the products on shelves online that are going to meet their wants and needs.” Refreshed wardrobes Fashion may just see a windfall. As Ozempic use grows, GLP-1s will provide “structural tailwinds” for the apparel industry, wrote Deutsche Bank analyst Adam Cochrane in a note, as users refresh their wardrobes following Ozempic-induced weight loss. According to the Bank of America, consumers are expected to refresh their wardrobe “for every two size changes”. Morning Consult surveyed Ozempic and other GLP-1 agonist users who are interested in weight loss, to determine changes in their behaviours since taking the drug. “In users of Ozempic and drugs like it, around a third of them told us they’re regularly buying new clothes,” Zink says. “Of course people losing weight require smaller clothes, but I also think when you lose weight your confidence changes and you might be more attracted to different styles of clothing, too.” “Something that I’m curious about is the long-term effects,” says Kayla Marci, market analyst at retail intelligence firm EDITED, who has been monitoring Ozempic’s effect on retail over the past year. “As we know, once people stop taking Ozempic, they can gain the weight back. So this means weight fluctuations, which may result in many wardrobe refresh moments over time.” A size inclusivity backslide As the most recent Vogue Business Spring/Summer 2025 menswear size inclusivity report demonstrated, size inclusivity on the runway is backsliding this year. Across the season, just three out of 65 brands (4.6 per cent) included at least one plus-size model. Four seasons ago, during the AW23 season in February 2023, eight shows out of 69 (11.5 per cent) featured at least one plus-size model. Analysts agree that the pop culture influence of weight loss drugs is giving luxury labels and mass-market brands, alike, licence to refocus on straight-size. “Luxury brands have long been staunchly unwilling to cater to plus-sizes outside of the occasional token representation, but typically premium and mass players would invest more readily in plus-size,” says Marci. “Now we’re seeing the effects of Ozempic and weight loss culture on retail as a whole.” Already, a host of US-based retailers and fashion companies including Rent the Runway are seeing boosted demand for smaller clothing sizes, and falling demand for larger sizes, according to The Wall Street Journal. Retailers have been investing in fewer products that offer larger sizing, according to EDITED data. In the US, dress options that are a US 14 and above have decreased by 15 per cent year-on-year, while skirts in a US 14 or above are down by 2 per cent. Plus, retailers that have traditionally catered to the plus-size market have reduced their options. Retailer Reformation’s extended sizing line has shrunk by 46 per cent year-on-year. Asos’s curve line, meanwhile, has gone from making up to 3 per cent of the site’s total arrivals in 2023 to 1.7 per cent this year. “[Plus-size] will be the most at risk category if Ozempic becomes mainstream outside of medical and celebrity usage,” Marci says. “Even when the body acceptance movement was at its peak, the industry wasn’t responding fast enough.” For beauty, plumping and lifting takes centre stage Skincare is predicted to shift from a sole focus on cellular health and longevity to ingredient innovations that target skin elasticity, hydration and firmness as the Ozempic economy booms. “Expect to see growth in formulations containing ingredients like retinoids, peptides and hyaluronic acid, known for their ability to boost collagen production and improve skin texture,” says scientist and medical physician Ekta Yadav. She also predicts that new topical formulations to improve muscle definition and manage tissue distribution will emerge, although those developments won’t be available soon. What is on the market and is continuing to grow alongside the Ozempic craze are “products with regenerative properties — such as growth factors, stem cell extracts and advanced peptides”, to support collagen production and skin regeneration. There are currently no dedicated skincare formulations to address Ozempic, however brands like PCA Skin, Skinmedica, Allies of Skin and ZO Skin Health have expanded with serums and moisturisers that contain growth factors and stem cell extracts addressing the skin-regeneration trend. As for surgical treatments, experts say invasive weight loss procedures such as tummy tucks will wane. Instead, face and body lifts are likely to soar as sagging skin concerns rise as a side effect of the drug. Coinciding with the rise of Ozempic use, the American Society of Plastic Surgeons (ASPS) have already reported a 5 per cent increase year-on-year in facial plastic surgeries and a 7 per cent increase in minimally invasive body procedures between 2022 and 2023. In an attempt to reverse ‘Ozempic face’ — an emerging term for the gaunt and hollow facial structures associated with the drug as well as muscle-mass reduction — dermal fillers, fat grafting and biostimulators will be offered as a solution. “With the rise in weight loss drugs like Ozempic, I have definitely seen an increase in patients present with the Ozempic face phenomenon, and have also had many patients attend pre-emptively who have ended up having treatments,” says Dr Luke Sullivan, founder of London’s Nova Clinic, which specialises in non-surgical facelift Endolift, designed to correct sagging skin among other concerns. “We’re still adapting to treating these new concerns, as unlike the ageing process, Ozempic face happens a lot more rapidly, meaning that we’re treating concerns in patients who are 10 to 20 years younger than those who have not taken the drug.” It’s a sharp contrast from the snatched and contoured complexion requests that have steered the aesthetics industry over the last two to five years. Where the facial narrowing procedure, aka buccal fat removal, became 2022 and 2023’s facial trend of the season, facial volumising treatments including the buzzy plumping injectable Sculptra are set to take its place. Haircare brands stand to benefit Hair loss and skin cancer dermatologist at Columbia and Boston University Dr Hannah Kopelman anticipates an uptick in demand for hair growth treatments and food supplements designed to support hair health. “Significant weight loss can lead to temporary hair shedding due to the stress on the body,” she explains. “I’ve had Ozempic patients express concerns about hair thinning and invest in supplements to counteract it.” Hair supplements that contain minoxidil and biotin will be important for maintenance and strength. Similarly, “Hair products enriched with biotin, keratin and peptides that are designed to enhance volume and thickness will likely experience growth too,” adds reconstructive surgeon Dr Nathalie Mobargha. The supplement and fitness redirection, and a potential sportswear boom Ozempic is changing the way people eat, so it’s only a matter of time until it changes the way people approach their health and fitness routines. For health and nutrition, “Receiving the correct amount of protein and essential nutrients, plus making sure that a client is hydrating properly, is important, thirst and hunger cues can be missed,” says Rose Ferguson, nutritionist, functional medicine practitioner and well-being club Surrenne’s fitness director. As a result, the supplement market will have to adjust to accommodate the new influx of Ozempic users. “They will need to take multivitamin supplements to address nutritional deficiencies and collagen boosters to pre-emptively address volume loss,” explains Dr Mark Murphy of Palm Beach Facial Plastic Surgery. Moreover, as Ozempic users wean themselves off the drug, they’ll likely look for an alternative solution to keep any weight gain to a minimum: carving out an opportunity for the supplement brand and ingredient market to cater to an emerging consumer base. Ingredients such as berberine, coined ‘nature’s Ozempic’, reached sales of $959 million in 2023 and are forecasted by research company Persistence Market Research to reach $2.1 billion by 2033. Whereas Arrae, a supplement brand, launched and then sold out of its MB-1 supplement, which is currently marketed as a ‘natural faux-zempic’. Arrae co-founder Siffat Haider tells Vogue Business: “With the rise of weight loss drugs, many people are looking for natural alternatives as they may not want to risk potential side effects and want a more cost-effective solution. We were looking for a holistic way to support metabolic health.” Morning Consult found that 38 per cent of GLP-1 users surveyed in November 2023 reported “exercising more often since [they] began taking drugs for weight loss”, to prevent future weight gain. As a result, sales in activewear and athleisure segments are expected to rise. Morgan Stanley research reveals that 30 per cent of surveyed consumers who take GLP-1s say they’ve bought more athleisure apparel and footwear since starting the drug; Deutsche Bank expects this to benefit brands like Puma and Adidas, while Bank of America predicts it’ll boost Lululemon and Hoka parent company Deckers Outdoor Corp. Fitness group Equinox says strength building and training programmes will be the fitness style of choice — a change in pace from the ongoing obsession with reformer pilates. The club introduced The Equinox Fitness Training Institute (EFTI), a new class for its coaches to be “GLP-1 certified”. The qualification ensures that “members and clients who use this class of drugs do require special considerations, as well as advanced training and lifestyle coaching,” says Michael Crandall, coach at E by Equinox Hudson Yards. He explains that the programme involves cardiovascular conditioning, resistance training, lean body mass maintenance, body fat loss and lifestyle coaching for nutrition, sleep and stress management. Comments, questions or feedback? Email us at feedback@voguebusiness.com.

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